IEA has launched 10-Point Plan to Reduce the European Union’s Reliance on Russian Natural Gas – heat pumps are part of the solution

The International Energy Agency (IEA) released a 10-point plan on March 3 to reduce the European Union’s reliance on Russian natural gas. They claim that actions taken this year may reduce Russian gas imports by more than a third, with additional interim options to reduce them by more than half while still cutting emissions.

Europe’s reliance on Russian natural gas has once again become a hot topic due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24. The report shows that the European Union imported 155 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia in 2021, accounting for over 45% of EU gas imports and nearly 40% of its total gas consumption. Progress toward Europe’s net-zero goals will reduce gas use and imports over time, but the current crisis highlights specific considerations regarding Russian imports and what policymakers and consumers can do to reduce them. The IEA report offers a set of immediate changes that might be adopted to minimize dependency on Russian gas while also improving the EU gas network’s near-term resilience and easing the burden on vulnerable users.

Not signing any new gas supply contracts with Russia; drawing on other energy sources and accelerating efforts to provide consumers, businesses, and industries with the means to use clean and efficient alternatives to natural gas; speeding up the replacement of gas boilers with heat pumps (which the Strategic Work Plan of HPT TCP also aims at), accelerate energy efficiency improvements in buildings and industry, accelerating the deployment of solar and wind; making the most of existing low-emission energy sources, such as nuclear and renewables; are among the key actions recommended, in the  IEA’s 10-Point Plan. The proposed measures are also entirely consistent with the EU’s European Green Deal and its Fit for 55 package, paving the way for future emissions reductions.

Many of the recommendations in the plan are major elements of the IEA’s Roadmap to Net Zero by 2050, including increasing energy efficiency measures, speeding renewable deployment, and extending low-emission sources of power system flexibility. The IEA predicts that if these initiatives are taken combined, the European Union’s Russian gas imports could be reduced by more than 50 billion cubic meters, or more than one-third, within a year. A bullet-point summary of the 10-point plan is given below. Read the press release.

1. Do not sign any new gas supply contracts with Russia. [Impact: Enables greater diversification of supply this year and beyond]
2. Replace Russian supplies with gas from alternative sources [Impact: Increases non-Russian gas supply by around 30 billion cubic meters within a year]
3. Introduce minimum gas storage obligations [Impact: Enhances resilience of the gas system by next winter]
4. Accelerate the deployment of new wind and solar projects [Impact: Reduces gas use by 6 billion cubic meters within a year]
5. Maximize power generation from bioenergy and nuclear [Impact: Reduces gas use by 13 billion cubic meters within a year]
6. Enact short-term tax measures on windfall profits to shelter vulnerable electricity consumers from high prices [Impact: Cuts energy bills even when gas prices remain high]
7. Speed up the replacement of gas boilers with heat pumps [Impact: Reduces gas use by an additional 2 billion cubic meters within a year]
8. Accelerate energy efficiency improvements in buildings and industry [Impact: Reduces gas use by close to 2 billion cubic meters within a year]
9. Encourage a temporary thermostat reduction of 1 °C by consumers [Impact: Reduces gas use by some 10 billion cubic meters within a year]
10. Step up efforts to diversify and decarbonize sources of power system flexibility [Impact: Loosens the strong links between gas supply and Europe’s electricity security]

Concerning bullet point 7. Speed up the replacement of gas boilers with heat pumps; the report states that

• Heat pumps offer a very efficient and cost-effective way to heat homes, replacing boilers that use gas or other fossil fuels. Speeding up anticipated deployment by doubling current EU installation rates of heat pumps would save an additional 2 bcm of gas use within the first year, requiring a total additional investment of EUR 15 billion.
• Alongside existing policy frameworks, targeted support for investment can drive the scaling up of heat pump installations. Ideally, this is best combined with upgrades of the homes themselves to maximize energy efficiency gains and reduce overall costs.
• Replacing gas boilers or furnaces with heat pumps is also an attractive option for the industry, although deployment may take longer to scale up.
• Depending on the situation, a shift from gas to electricity for heating buildings could have the corresponding effect of pushing up gas demand for power generation. However, any increase would be much lower than the overall amount of gas saved. Such a shift would also transfer seasonal swings in demand from the gas market to the power market.

The HPT TCP is continuously providing IEA with facts and data which contributes to this type of analysis made by IEA.