Metkel Yebiyo, Research Institute of Sweden, Sweden
Sweden remains one of the world’s most mature and saturated heat pump markets. With a high penetration rate in single-family homes, the market dynamic has shifted significantly from “first-time adoption” to “replacement and modernization.” While the industry comes off a record-breaking period, 2024 has introduced a notable cooling in immediate demand due to economic headwinds, even as the long-term outlook remains overwhelmingly positive. Swedish heat pump statistics are collected by the Swedish Heat Pump Association (Svenska Kyl & Värmepumpföreningen, SKVP), which has tracked sales since 1982 and publishes quarterly data (see Figure 1). The data used in this report has been extracted from the SKVP website.
Market Size & Sales Development
The heat pump industry has continuously collected statistics on heat pumps sold in Sweden since 1982. Each quarter, the most recent sales figures are reported, and the dataset provides a comprehensive overview of market development from 1982 to the present.
As illustrated in Figure 1, heat pump sales in Sweden have undergone several distinct phases over the past four decades. Following relatively modest volumes during the 1980s and early 1990s, the market expanded rapidly from the late 1990s, driven by rising energy prices, policy support, and growing awareness of energy efficiency. This growth accelerated in the early to mid-2000s, when annual sales exceeded 100,000 units, marking the first major expansion of the Swedish heat pump market.
The graph also highlights significant shifts in the composition of technologies over time. While ground-source (brine-to-water) and exhaust air heat pumps played an important role in the early growth phase, air-source heat pumps, particularly air-to-air and air-to-water systems, have become increasingly dominant since the mid-2000s. In recent years, air-to-water heat pumps have experienced strong growth, reflecting their suitability for hydronic heating systems and their potential to replace fossil-fuel-based boilers in single-family homes.
Market fluctuations are clearly visible, with periods of decline corresponding to economic downturns, changes in subsidy schemes, and external shocks. Notably, sales peaked again around 2021–2022, reaching historically high levels, before declining in 2023–2024. This recent downturn likely reflects a combination of high interest rates, reduced household purchasing power, market saturation in some segments, and the normalization of conditions following exceptionally strong demand during the energy price crisis.
Installer Sentiment: (The Pulsen Survey)
After a historic peak in sales and interest, the Swedish market is currently experiencing a correction. High inflation and interest rates have impacted consumer purchasing power, leading to a visible shift in installer sentiment compared to the previous year.
As shown in Figure 2, the perceived demand has dampened significantly. In the 2023 survey, 85% of installers described demand as positive (Very High, High, or Quite High). In 2024, that figure has dropped to 51%. However, this dip is widely viewed as a temporary stabilization rather than a structural decline. When asked about the next three years, confidence remains robust, with 94% of respondents predicting positive demand ahead, actually an increase from 92% the previous year.
National Sales Statistics (Hard Data)
While the Pulsen survey tracks sentiment, the national sales statistics from the Swedish Refrigeration & Heat Pump Association (SKVP) reveal the actual volume trends. Following the exceptional “boom” year of 2023, the market experienced a significant correction in 2024, though specific segments showed resilience by year-end.
- Full Year 2024 Performance: The total market contracted in 2024 as distributor stocks remained high and households paused investments due to economic uncertainty.
- Exhaust Air Heat Pumps (FrĂĄnluft): This segment was hit hardest, with sales declining by 54% for the full year.
- Ground Source Heat Pumps (Bergvärme): Sales decreased by 34% compared to the 2023 peak.
- Air-to-Water Heat Pumps: Showed more resilience but still finished the year down by 20%.
- The Turning Point (Q4 2024): Despite weak annual figures, the market began to turn a corner in the fourth quarter. As seen in Figure 3, Air-to-Water heat pumps broke the negative trend, recording a 16% increase in sales during Q4. This signals that inventory issues have cleared and demand is returning as interest rates stabilize.
The Replacement Era
Sweden has effectively entered the “Replacement Era.” The massive wave of installations from the 1990s and 2000s has now reached the end of life, creating a reliable baseload of sales volume that is less dependent on new-construction trends.
Figure4: Distribution of heating systems replaced or supplemented by new heat pump installations (2010–2024). The data highlight Sweden’s shift to a “replacement market,” in which replacing an older heat pump (Ă„ldre värmepump) is now the leading installation scenario, surpassing direct electric heating (Direktverkande el). (Source: https://skvp.se/nyheter-o-statistik/statistik/varmepumpforsaljningen)
Figure 4 illustrates this pivotal shift. For the first time, replacing an older heat pump is the single most common reason for a new installation, accounting for 33% of all projects.
- Direct Electric Heating: Still a major driver, accounting for 26% of replacements.
- Electric Boilers: Account for 14% of replacements.
- District Heating: There is also a noted increase in heat pumps replacing district heating connections, driven by rising prices in that sector.
Technology Trends: The Shift to Propane (R290)
European F-gas regulations are driving a rapid technological transformation in the Swedish hardware stock. Manufacturers are quickly pivoting toward natural refrigerants to future-proof their product lines.
As detailed in Figure 5, the adoption of R290 (Propane) has accelerated sharply between 2023 and 2024:
- Exhaust Air Heat Pumps: The shift is most dramatic here. The share of units using R290 jumped from 34% in 2023 to 51% in 2024, making it the dominant refrigerant in this segment.
- Air-to-Water Heat Pumps: R290 share grew from 2% to 12% in just one year.
- Air-to-Air Heat Pumps: R32 remains the standard, commanding 95% of the market.
- Ground Source Heat Pumps: This segment is moving more slowly, with R410A still holding 53% of the market, though R32 has grown to 21%.
Price Stability
Following a period of volatility and price hikes in 2023, the cost of installing a heat pump in Sweden has stabilized.
Figure 6 tracks the total cost (hardware + installation) for a standard residential project. After sharp price increases in previous years, 2024 shows a stabilization trend, with costs for Geothermal (Bergvärme) and Air-to-Water (Luft/Vatten) systems remaining largely in line with 2023 levels.
- Geothermal (Bergvärme) and Air-to-Water: Prices have flattened after previous increases.
- Exhaust Air (FrĂĄnluft): Saw a modest increase of approx. 4%.
- Air-to-Air (Luft/Luft): Continued a trend of slight increases, rising by approximately 2%.
Conclusion
While 2024 presents a challenging economic environment, the fundamentals of the Swedish market remain strong. The high replacement volume, combined with a 94% positive 3-year outlook from industry professionals, suggests that Sweden will continue to serve as a leading model for heat pump maturity and technological innovation in Europe.
Author contact information
| Name | Metkel Yebiyo |
| Title | PhD, Senior Researcher |
| Affiliation | Research Institute of Sweden |
| E-mail address | Metkel.yebiyo@ri.se |
