Unlocking the flexibility potential of heat pumps and electrical vehicles is primarily a societal and institutional challenge, not a purely technical one. “ Evaluating Electric Vehicle and Heat Pump Flexibility Potential: Linking Technology, Economics, Regulation, Behaviour and Policy”, a report recently published by the Users TCP, 4E TCP EDNA Platform, and the AIT, concludes that the technical readiness is already high, but it is behavioural factors that significantly limit practical deployment of these technologies.
Energy systems are undergoing a profound transformation in the way energy is produced, distributed, and consumed. Electrifying heating and transport through the widespread adoption of heat pumps (HPs) and electric vehicles (EVs) is a cornerstone of this transition. However, to unlock their full potential, these technologies must not only replace fossil fuel systems but also deliver flexibility — the ability to adjust electricity consumption or production to support grid stability and enable greater integration of renewable energy.
The graph below (Figure 1) illustrates different types of flexibility and shows how higher activation levels of flexibility (higher power) can only be sustained for shorter periods, while lower activation levels can be maintained for longer durations.
This study introduces a high-level model that connects technical capabilities, economic drivers, behavioural factors, and policy frameworks to estimate the overall flexibility potential of distributed assets.
For heat pumps, the analysis shows that most modern systems in Austria (the case study for this research) are technically capable of providing basic demand response services, thanks to growing smart-grid compatibility and the adoption of the Smart Grid Ready label. However, user willingness to contribute remains the key bottleneck: while nearly all devices could technically participate, the proportion of owners likely to enrol in flexibility programmes under current conditions ranges from 30% to 84%.
For electric vehicles, the flexibility potential in Austria is even greater due to their large battery capacity and rising market penetration. Smart charging and vehicle-to-grid (V2G) technologies enable EVs to shift charging demand or feed power back into the grid. Nevertheless, behavioural factors — such as range anxiety, the inconvenience of manual charging, and concerns about battery degradation — significantly influence user participation.
At a wider scale, the HPT TCP has investigated and contributed to developing flexibility features of heat pumps for a long time, for example, in HPT Project 57 Flexibility by implementation of heat pumps in multi-vector energy systems and thermal networks and HPT Project 42 Heat Pumps in Smart grids. In fact, a new project expected to start at the beginning of 2026, will cover flexibility from both small and large central heat pumps as well as distributed heat pumps, which can be aggregated to offer flexibility services. Moreover, new initiatives for coordinated control of heat pumps, electrical vehicles, batteries and solar photovoltaics are under discussion within the programme.
The results presented in the report also highlight the need for collaboration between HPT TCP and other TCPs, not least ones working closely with end-users. Th team is continuously exploring collaboration possibilities with USERs TCP as well as other TCPs. For example our joint workshop organized in June i Stockholm, Sweden.
The report is available here: New report evaluates the flexibility potential of heat pumps and electric vehicles – UsersTCP