Risk-assessment of heat pumps as investment decision to decarbonize district heating and cooling systems – comparison between nine case studies in Europe
The ENABLE-DHC project is an EU-funded initiative aimed at developing investment plans for district heating and cooling (DHC) systems in seven countries: Austria, Croatia, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Slovenia, and Ukraine. These plans are designed to support the transition toward energy-efficient and decarbonized DHC networks, with large-scale heat pumps playing a central role as a key technology for sustainable energy systems. This paper compares the technological, economic, social and environmental investment risks of different DHC decarbonization strategies. This approach enables the quantitative analysis of risks under different criteria and supports robust investment decisions. The ENABLE-DHC project is expected to trigger the generation of around 654 GWh/year of renewable energy and mobilize nearly EUR 100 million in sustainable energy investments. Across all participating countries, large-scale heat pumps were identified as the most promising solution. However, electricity prices uncertainties, unavailability or short-term funding scheme or financial incentives and high-investment costs are perceived are high risks and could be a barrier for the technological uptake. Furthermore, qualitative risk-assessment through operational optimization and Monte Carlo Analysis are expected by the end of the project for some country-specific examples (Vienna and Ljubljana), providing deeper insights into European techno-economic risks in the decarbonization of these DHC systems.