Are the Ambitious Heat Pump Targets Achievable?
Heat pumps are central to achieving climate goals and decarbonizing heating. The EU aims for 60 million additional units by 2030; Germany targets six million. However, these targets face criticism based on outdated information rather than scientific evidence. This paper examines five key areas: production capacities, workforce availability, applicability in existing buildings, deployment in multi-family buildings, and economic viability. Recent €7 billion investments in European production created capacity exceeding targets. Intensive training addresses workforce shortages. Field studies across six European countries show heat pumps achieving seasonal performance factors of 3.2 in unrenovated buildings, maintaining efficiency above 2.0 during cold waves. Modern heat pumps deliver up to 75°C flow temperatures. In France, heat pump share in new multi-family buildings rose from 4% to 45% in five years. Economic viability, supported by innovative business models integrating photovoltaics and intelligent control, depends on energy prices and subsidies. Achieving ambitious targets is technically and organizationally feasible with sustained political will, targeted funding, and coordinated implementation. The debate represents a political choice about energy transition, not a technical limitation.