22 May 2002
This paper presents quantitative information about the potential future contribution of heat pumps to the UK commitment to the Kyoto Protocol in targeted application areas. Estimates have been made of the reduction in emissions of greenhouse gases that would result from using heat pumps in the commercial/institutional building sector in the UK between the year 2000 and 2020. The modelling took into account anticipated trends in construction, in the penetration of air conditioning, equipment replacement rates, changing fuel mix for electricity generation and improvements in the energy performance of both heat pumps and fossil fuel boilers. Different refrigerants and Seasonal Performance Factors (SPFs) were used to calculate the direct and indirect components of the Total Equivalent Warming Impact (TEWI). The total potential CO2 emissions reduction for the commercial/institutional building sector under a Business-As-Usual scenario (BAU) was estimated at 0.15 Mt CO2equivalent for the year 2000 rising to 0.74 Mt CO2equivalent in 2020. Reductions were shown to be greatest for the office building sub-sector since offices currently account for the greatest proportion of packaged air conditioning systems. The retail outlet sector showed the largest percentage increase in potential reductions. In 2010, approximately 3% of the CO2 emissions reduction required under the Kyoto Protocol targets established for the UK (based on time frame 2000-2010) could be achieved by heat pumps that replace gas boilers in commercial/institutional building applications.