Heat Pump Sales Overview: The introduction and integration of heat pumps in Belgium aligned with the adoption of energy-efficient buildings in 2006. The total sales volume of heat pumps, including air to water, water to water, and domestic hot water heat pumps, during the first semester of 2023 has surged by 140% compared to 2022, resulting in a remarkable 240% increase from the previous year. Heat pumps are predominantly used for space heating in the domestic market, with domestic hot water heaters experiencing a surge, mainly attributed to the replacement of electrical boilers.
Market Drivers: The energy crisis and the resultant shift in the electricity/gas price ratio have emerged as significant drivers for the positive trend in heat pump sales. Belgium historically maintained a high price ratio (around 4-5) compared to other countries, impacting the cost-benefit analysis. The tax shift from electricity to gas was a long-debated solution, and with the Ukraine conflict, the tax component’s impact decreased sharply, leading to a reduced price ratio of 2.7 in September 2022. However, fluctuations have been observed, and as of August 2023, the ratio is back up to 4.3, influencing a slightly lower sales increase.
Regional Policy Integration: Positive regional policies have contributed to the heat pump market dynamics. Examples include the ban on gas connections for new multi-family buildings, reduced public grants for gas network connections in new buildings, the prohibition of oil boilers in new constructions, and a forthcoming restriction on gas grid connections in new individual houses by 2025. However, uncertainties, such as the VAT taxation on demolition and reconstruction of buildings and heat pumps, create temporary disruptions in the market.
Need for Stable Policy: For a healthy and steady development of heat pump sales, a stable overall policy is crucial. Market fluctuations, associated with policy uncertainties, can result in stop-go movements, delaying the transition to cleaner energy solutions. A clear roadmap is advocated to ensure a smooth transition without economic challenges.
Academic Research Focus: Academic research in Belgium has shifted its focus to industrial high-temperature applications, integration into larger systems, clean hybrid solutions, and advanced control and design of larger systems. Collaboration between different stakeholders in the heat pump industry and a clear tax shift from electricity to fossil fuels are seen as essential for further reducing CO2 emissions in heating.
Outlook: Belgium’s outlook for the heat pump industry is positive, with city-level plans considering individual heat pumps or thermal grids for building heating. Large industrial heat pumps are anticipated to play a crucial role in supplying thermal grids, contributing to a sustainable and sunny long-term view for the technology in Belgium towards 2050. Despite challenges, a stable policy framework and collaborative efforts could pave the way for substantial reductions in CO2 emissions in the heating sector.
Heat Pump Platform steering group, ODE Belgium
This text has been shortened by the HPC team
