Raw Material Needs for Heat Pumps in Germany until 2045
Heat pumps are crucial for meeting international climate mitigation targets in the heating sector. As deployment is projected to rise, the demand for raw materials will increase significantly. This study illustrates the material requirement for heat pumps in Germany from the year 2021 to 2045 and the regarding share of material availability for the German heat pump sector considering both short-term and long-term perspectives on the example of two types of heat pumps. The analysis estimates annual material demand for the German heat pump market against projected production capacities and cumulative demand against reserves, focusing on critical materials such as copper, nickel, aluminum, and rare earth elements (REE) used in magnets. The results show that demand for all examined materials is expected to exceed production capacities. In addition, for copper and nickel the cumulative demand could exceed the reserve budget which may lead to long-term shortages. By optimizing the heat pump design, material demand can significantly decrease, with potential reductions of 50% for copper and 85% for nickel. Overall, the findings underscore the importance of proactive material planning and targeted mitigation strategies to ensure a secure and sustainable supply of critical resources for Germany’s heat pump deployment.