Paper no 504 – Assessing the peak demand implications of air-source heat pumps in Canada and identifying potential mitigation strategies – 14th IEA Heat Pump Conference, Chicago, USA
Heat pumps are a critical element of a decarbonized built environment, but their widespread adoption can increase house level electrical demand. This paper uses a simulation-based approach to examine the peak demand implications of replacing natural gas furnaces with air-source heat pumps in four Canadian cities. Results show that the peak demand impacts of heat pumps are closely tied to climate. In colder regions (Ottawa, Winnipeg), peaks occur when outdoor temperatures are lowest and auxiliary heating is needed to supplement or replace heat pump operations. Peak demand increases vs. gas heating may approach up to 8 kW in Ottawa and 9 kW in Winnipeg. In milder regions (Halifax, Vancouver), peak events are linked to heat pump use coincident with higher non-HVAC electrical loads. Peak demand increases may reach up to 3 kW in Halifax and Vancouver. Simulations show these increases may be mitigated by using energy stored in the building thermal mass to reduce heat pump operation during peak hours. Results can be used to understand the implications of greater heat pump adoption in Canada and identify approaches to address potential challenges.