Finland: Heat Pump Market Outlook

The heat pump market in Finland is thriving. Over one million units are installed, in a country with a population of 5.5 million. Leading in quantity are air-source heat pumps, with air-to-air being specifically large on the market. When it comes to Euros invested, and RES potential installed, ground-source heat pumps are in the lead.

During 2020, over 100 000 heat pumps were sold in Finland, and over 600 million Euros was invested. Out of these, the vast majority were air-source heat pumps: as many as 80%. Financial aid to replace oil heating was especially favourable for air-to-water heat pumps, and the sales increased with 25%. Ground-source heat pumps decreased in numbers but increased in size and sales.

Heat pumps are used in various settings in Finland. They are, for example, used in multi-family houses, shopping centres, and for heat recovery and process solutions. In new-built single-family houses heat pumps are installed in 75% of the cases. And in older buildings, both oil and district heating are being replaced by a heat pump. The success can be explained in financial terms: the return of investment is often 10-15% per year.

When heat pumps are installed in multi-family houses, it is often exhaust-air, ground-source, or a combination of the two. The combination increases the overall efficiency of the system. This sector is growing, as well as the sector for large service-facility buildings. The increased large-scale use of heat recovery also increases the demand for heat pumping technologies. A driving factor behind that evolution is the improvement of the technology. As heat pump performance enhances, they become efficient and cost-effective for ever more areas of use.

In a quite near future, heat pumps will also play a crucial role in applications for demand response and managing of electricity demand. This should increase the market even further.

At this moment, heat pumps produce more than 12 TWh annually. This means that they cover 15% of the heating demand in Finland. Studies show that in 2030, there will be 2 million heat pumps producing 22 TWh each year. The government has set the target to be carbon neutral in 2035; the target for heat pumps by then are 35 TW/a. As can be seen, the heat pump industry is well on track to meet that target.

Jussi Hirvonen
Executive Director
Finnish Heat Pump Association SULPU ry

The text has been shortened by the HPC team

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